Dr. John Lott has an op-ed with Professor Gary Mauser (Simon Fraser University) in the Toronto Sun (Canada).
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In Canada, if people can’t successfully “hide” from criminals, police officials are advising crime victims to “comply” with a criminal’s demands. Jim MacSween, the Chief of York Regional Police since 2020 and oversees 1.2 million residents living in Ontario’s York Region, warned residents not to attempt to confront intruders but comply with the criminal until law enforcement arrives.
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Last year, with Toronto facing an auto theft rate of 330 per 100,000 people (the US’s rate was 259), police in Toronto were advising people to leave their car keys by their front door to avoid home invasions.
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Unfortunately, Canada doesn’t have the detailed crime data that exists in the United States and in some other countries to accurately advise people.
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In America, law enforcement usually gives very different advice. When PoliceOne—the largest police organization in the U.S. with 450,000 members—surveyed its officers, 76% said legally armed citizens play a very or extremely important role in reducing crime. There is no similar survey of police officers across Canada.
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Police are extremely important in deterring crime, but, unfortunately, they almost always arrive on the scene after the crime has been committed. Studies show simply telling people to behave passively turns out not to be very good advice, so it is important that gun laws allow would-be victims to defend themselves.
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Canadian police may advise people to wait for the police to arrive, but those can be long waits. For priority one calls, the police response time in Toronto was 22 minutes in 2023 and 18.1 minutes in 2024. Outside of major cities, the wait time can be much longer.
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It isn’t rocket science. Criminals are deterred with higher arrest and conviction rates, longer prison sentences, and the fact that victims might be able to defend themselves. Making it easier for criminals to commit crime only ensures that there will be more crime.
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Criminals don’t want to get hurt, and an armed citizenry can make criminals think twice. The defensive value of guns is evidenced by international comparisons of so-called “hot burglaries,” whereby a resident is at home when a criminal strikes. In the United Kingdom, which has tough gun-control laws, almost 60% of all burglaries are “hot burglaries.” In the United States, where gun ownership is commonplace, the “hot burglary” rate stands at only 13 percent. In 2024, the overall burglary rate in the UK is about 54% higher than the rate in the US (229 per 100,000 in US and 353 per 100,000 in England & Wales).
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Convicted American felons reveal in surveys that they are much more worried about armed victims than about encountering the police. The fear of armed victims causes American burglars to spend more time than their foreign counterparts in “casing” a house to ensure that nobody is home. American burglars break into homes during the middle of the day, when homeowners are less likely to be at home, but British burglars often break in during the evening so that they can get the homeowners to open up any safes. Felons frequently comment in interviews that they avoid late-night burglaries because “that’s the way to get shot.”
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Simply complying with a criminal’s demands rarely keeps victims safe. According to the U.S.’s National Crime Victimization Survey, which surveys 240,000 people each year, men who stay passive face a 1.4 times greater risk of serious injury than men who use a gun for protection. For women, passivity proves even more dangerous—women who comply are 2.5 times more likely to suffer serious injury than women who resist with a gun. When women resist without a gun, their chance of being seriously injured jumps to nearly four times higher than if they resist with one. No comparable Canadian statistics are published.
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The evidence shows that those most likely to be targeted—people who are physically weaker—gain the most from protecting themselves. Women, in particular, benefit from having a gun, since their attackers are almost always men, who usually have a significant strength advantage.
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In the US, African-Americans and the poor living in high-crime urban areas also gain the most from owning or carrying a gun for protection. For example, while allowing concealed carry reduces violent crime everywhere, violent crime falls 4 percentage points faster each year in counties that are 40 percent black than in counties that are only 5 percent black.
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Unfortunately, by passing gun control laws, Canadian authorities are making it harder for victims to defend themselves and thus less risky for criminals to commit crime.
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Passively complying with criminals’ demands is dangerous. Strengthening deterrence through both effective policing and empowering potential victims with the means of self-defense offers the clearest path to reducing crime and keeping people safe.
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— John R. Lott Jr. is the president of the Crime Prevention Research Center, and he served as the senior advisor for research and statistics in the Office of Justice Programs and the Office of Legal Policy in the U.S. Department of Justice during 2020-21. Gary Mauser is professor emeritus at Simon Fraser University.
