Dr. John Lott has a new piece up at Real Clear Politics on Trump federalizing law enforcement in D.C.
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When 10 juveniles brutally attacked former DOGE whiz kid Edward Coristine – nicknamed “Big Balls” – in an attempted carjacking that left him bloodied, Washington, D.C.’s violent crime rate exploded into a political flashpoint. President Trump’s decision to federalize the D.C. police and bring in FBI agents and the National Guard to fight crime has upset liberals who attack it as “unnecessary” and the media who fact check Trump’s statements on crime as false.
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“I’m going to make our Capital safer and more beautiful than it ever was before,” President Trump vowed on Truth Social. “The criminals – you don’t have to move out. We’re going to put you in jail where you belong.” On Monday morning, Trump unveiled his plans, announcing a historic escalation of law enforcement in D.C. by deploying the National Guard to patrol the streets and placing the city’s police department under federal control.
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During the first half of 2025, violent crime in Washington, D.C., fell 25%, with robberies dropping 26% compared to the same period in 2024. If this pace continues through the year, the violent crime rate will land around 632 crimes per 100,000 people – a level significantly lower than in recent years.
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Carjacking numbers tell a more sobering story. While they have dropped from 959 in 2023 to 496 in 2024, pre-COVID figures were far lower: 95 in 2017, 92 in 2018, and 142 in 2019. Unfortunately, Edward Coristine isn’t the only person in D.C. facing the threat of carjackings.
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“The number of car thefts has doubled over the past five years, and the number of carjackings has more than tripled,” Trump announced Monday. But news media fact-checkers quickly countered, citing “figuresthat the U.S. attorney released earlier this year showing a downward trajectory for these crimes.” The problem is that while carjackings fell dramatically last year, Trump is correct that they are still three times higher than five years ago. Somehow the checkers are ignoring the fact that Trump was referring to the five-year period.
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D.C.’s violent crime rate still exceeds that of every state by at least 54% and rivals or surpasses many major cities. Other cities are also seeing declines. If New York City maintains its current pace, it will end the year with 599.7 violent crimes per 100,000 people, with cities from Boston to Dallas recording similar or lower rates.
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And D.C. is still the outlier for murders. In 2023, the last year that final FBI data is available, D.C. ranked fifthfor murder of the 60 most populous cities. And on Monday Trump discussed how high D.C.’s murder rate was compared to other capitals around the world.
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But these numbers may paint an overly optimistic picture of crime in D.C., as the police union’s July allegations that department supervisors manipulated crime data to make it look as if violent crime fell more than it actually did this year. There is also the problem nationally that over the last few years there has been a large gap between total and reported crime. When crime has gotten out of control and there are few arrests and prosecutions, victims become less likely to report crime to the police.
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On Friday, Trump dispatched 120 FBI agents from across the country. They have already begun patrolling D.C. streets overnight, reinforcing local police at carjacking hot spots. In addition, word came on Monday that the U.S. military is preparing to activate hundreds of National Guard troops to Washington, D.C.
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This isn’t rocket science. The research is clear that if you want to reduce crime, you need to make it risky for criminals to commit crime. Higher arrest and conviction rates as well as longer prison terms matter. Just as making it possible for people to defend themselves also make a difference.
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Trump’s move for FBI agents and the National Guard will increase arrest rates, and simply the threat of arrest will reduce the crime rate. This represents dramatic increases in the number of law enforcement officers. In Washington, D.C., there were 1,340 patrol officers in December 2024 and about 3,400 sworn officers, but obviously not all of these officers can be on duty all the time. Suppose a third are on duty at any point in time: That is about 450 patrol officers and 1,130 officers of any type for a population of about 720,000.
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“Crime is out of control, and our officers are stretched beyond their limits,” D.C. police union Chair Gregg Pemberton warned on Monday. The new FBI agents and National Guard soldiers can make a real difference.
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In 2022, Biden’s U.S. attorney for D.C., Matthew Graves, declined to prosecute 67% of criminal arrests in D.C. – up significantly from 31% in 2016. Even in 2023, prosecutors dropped 56% of arrests. Trump’s U.S. attorneys for D.C., Ed Martin and later Jeanine Pirro, vow to crack down on violent crime, with a focus on gun violence. On Monday, Pirro pledged to “change the laws” in D.C. so courts treat offenders under 18 more harshly. She criticized the leniency often given to these “young punks” because of their age.
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In addition, undoubtedly, Trump’s push to deport illegal alien criminals this year has helped reduce violent crime in D.C. and across the nation.
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Republicans are also making moves to let victims defend themselves. The Republican appropriations bill for next year, now before the House, aims to change current law, allowing anyone with a valid concealed handgun permit in their home state to legally carry in D.C. With about 8,000 concealed handgun permits, only about 1.3% of the adult population has such a permit.
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If sustained, these combined measures – more officers on the streets, higher prosecution rates, and expanded rights for lawful self-defense – could sharply reduce D.C.’s violent crime rate in the coming year. While recent declines in overall crime are encouraging, the persistence of high carjacking levels and a violent crime rate exceeding that of every state and many cities show that more can be done to make D.C. safer.
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For Democrats who claim to care about the poor and minorities—the main victims of crime—Trump’s actions will show other cities how to get serious about reducing crime.
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