. . . Firearms researcher John Lott reminds us, too, that rifles, per se, like the AR-15, are involved in only a fraction of these incidents. His analysis of such shooting incidents taking place between 1998 and 2024 finds that in only 17.3 percent of them did the perpetrator use “only rifles of any type.” More than half — 51.9 percent — “used solely handguns.” If this research is any guide, legislators’ focus on the AR-15 would appear to be misplaced.
“Any type of rifle accounts for less than 3% of murders in the U.S.,” Mr. Lott tells us, “and that share fell as ownership of AR-15s and AK-47s has increased.” He adds that between 1994 and 2004, when the so-called assault weapon ban was in effect via federal law, “the percentage of mass shootings involving assault weapons actually rose, then declined after the ban expired.” These findings serve to undermine the rationale for legislative bans on firearms. . . .
An economist and president of the Crime Research Center, John Lott, tells the Sun that although violent crime did rise in recent years, only 40 percent were actually reported to police.
“Why did violent crime continue to rise? Two main reasons stand out: arrest and conviction rates dropped, and the U.S. experienced a massive influx of illegal aliens during that time,” he said. “That trend may now be reversing.” . . .
Mr. Lott also noted that total violent crime is falling due to “tougher enforcement by many local governments.
“I also suspect that criminal illegal aliens are more cautious than before. They now know that getting arrested is much more likely to result in deportation — unlike during the Biden administration when enforcement was far weaker,” he said. . . .
Mr. Lott agreed that the rejection of such prosecutors matters.
“Progressive district attorneys nationwide, from New York to Chicago to Los Angeles, were downgrading felonies to misdemeanors. Recent numbers show that Manhattan’s progressive DA downgraded felonies to lesser charges 60 percent of the time; and, of that 60 percent, 89 percent were downgraded to misdemeanors,” Mr. Lott said.
Reports indicate that in 2023, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office downgraded approximately 60 percent of felony cases to lesser charges. Of these downgraded cases, about 89% were reduced to misdemeanors. Specifically, 938 felony cases were downgraded, with 834 resulting in misdemeanor charges. . . .
But the DEI push also hit home for safety of Americans in their own cities.Police and fire departments were forced to hire subpar candidates, with slashed pay, and created a whole mess of issues.
John Lott of the Crime Prevention Research Center says one of the biggest problems was doing away with intelligence tests.
“The types of people you have are not able to fill out police reports…that in turn creates problems for prosecutions,” he says. . . .
“A lot of these policies were already kind of locked in…it is difficult to undo what has already been done,” says Lott. . . .
In jurisdictions where firearms are legally carried, such as in many American states, studies often show that law-abiding citizens act as a deterrent to crime, not a contributor to it. For instance, a 2017 study by John Lott found that states with permissive concealed carry laws saw reductions in violent crime rates, suggesting that an armed populace can enhance, rather than undermine, public safety. . . .
Dr. John Lott, president of the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC), published an Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal titled, “The Media Say Crime Is Going Down. Don’t Believe It: The decline in reported crimes is a function of less reporting, not less crime.” . . .
. . . John R. Lott Jr., an economist and a renowned expert and author on guns and crime, does not buy the assertions put forth by Democratic leaders. His recent article on the website of conservative news outlet “American Greatness” titled “Crime Rates of Illegal Migrants Underreported” underscored this point.
Whether crime is truly falling amid a surge in illegal immigration depends on which data source is used, according to Lott. While FBI statistics reflect only crimes reported to law enforcement agencies, the Department of Justice’s Bureau of Justice Statistics tracks total crime, including incidents not reported to police. Per these broader statistics, total crime increased sharply in 2021, 2022, and 2023. This was the largest percentage jump of any three-year period on record, coinciding with a significant influx of illegal immigrants.
A major challenge in analyzing these trends is the difficulty government agencies have in accurately identifying illegal immigrants within their databases. For example, errors in the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), which is designed to bar non-citizens with criminal records from purchasing firearms, highlight how unreliable these records can be.
There is also more explicit data connecting illegal immigration to crime. In the past year, the Biden administration acknowledged that 9% of “non-detained” illegal immigrants released into the country—about “662,566 out of 7.4 million”—had criminal histories. Notably, this figure largely reflects individuals who voluntarily surrendered at the border. It does not include the estimated 2 million “gotaways” who crossed the border undetected during the Biden administration, nor the unknown numbers who evaded detection entirely. . . .
José Niño, “Illegal Immigrants Do Raise Crime Rates,” American Free Press, June 13, 2025.
While the debate between gun prohibitionists and Second Amendment advocates will continue perhaps the tale is best told with other statistics, from the Crime Prevention Research Center.
“After a spike in 2022,” the CPRC reported last December, “the number of Concealed Carry Permit holders across the United States fell for a second consecutive year. The figure now stands at 21.46 million – a 1.8% drop since last year. A major cause of the continuous decline is that 29 states now have Constitutional Carry laws after Louisiana allowing permitless carry, effective July 4, 2024. In other words, 46.8% of Americans (157.6 million) now live in Constitutional Carry States, with 67.7% of the land in the country (2.57 million square miles).”
Breaking it down, the center also reported:
■ 8.2% of American adults have permits. Outside of the restrictive states of California and New York, about 9.8% of adults have a permit.
■ In sixteen states, more than 10% of adults have permits. Oregon has fallen slightly below 10% this year. Indiana has the highest concealed carry rate — 23.1%. Alabama is second with 20.5%, and Colorado is third with 17.7%.
■ Five states now have over 1 million permit holders: Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Pennsylvania, and Texas. Florida is the top states with 2.46 million permits. Alabama has fallen below 1 million permit holders this year, but it has become a Constitutional Carry state since January 1, 2023, meaning that people no longer need a permit to carry. . . .
The use of state permits for a Brady Law or NICS check (Some Brady Checks are done under state authority) is a good step in the right direction. Noted researcher John Lott notes that many NICS checks are false positives, which wrongly deprive innocent people of the right, protected by the Second Amendment, of purchasing firearms. The waiting periods in some states, such as California, are being challenged in the courts as an infringement on rights protected by the Second Amendment.
There is at least one challenge against the federal prohibition on purchasing handguns across state lines, even if both states would approve the purchase. The NICS system needs a serious overhaul. It is designed to deny purchases. It uses broad criteria. Much better commercial systems are in place that allow quicker, more positive identifications. . . .
A recent study reveals that over half of U.S. states now permit residents to carry concealed weapons without a permit, marking a considerable shift in gun ownership practices. The research, spearheaded by John R. Lott of the Crime Prevention Research Center, indicates that while the number of concealed carry permits is dropping, the overall number of people carrying concealed weapons is rising, particularly among women and racial minorities in urban areas. Currently, 27 states have adopted “constitutional carry,” which is expected to reduce crime by enabling more individuals to carry firearms for self-protection.
Lott’s findings highlight a decrease in concealed carry permits from 8.9% in 2022 to 8.4% in 2023, despite a Supreme Court ruling which eliminated strict permit requirements. Notably, permit statistics show disparities in demographics, with states like Indiana seeing higher rates among urban residents compared to neighboring Illinois, where financial barriers restrict access. As this trend continues, experts warn that weakening public carry laws could correlate with increased violence, raising concerns among gun control advocates on the implications for future crime rates. . . .
Staff, “Permitless Concealed Carry Expands Across US,” Gun Daily News, June 3, 2025.
A new nationwide survey commissioned by the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) and conducted by McLaughlin & Associates has revealed a significant disconnect between public perception and actual crime data involving illegal immigrants. Despite years of border chaos and rising crime rates, a majority of voters still believe illegal aliens are less likely to commit crimes than U.S. citizens.
In the April 29, 2025 survey of 1,000 likely voters, only 33.3% said illegal immigrants commit crime at a higher rate than American citizens. By contrast, 41.6% said they do not, and 25.1% said they weren’t sure. . . .
CPRC President John Lott Jr., said, “In non-gun-free zones, where civilians are legally able to carry guns, concealed carry permit holders stopped 51.5% of active shootings, compared to 44.6% stopped by police, CPRC found in a deep dive into active shooter scenarios between 2014 and 2023.”
Lott said, “Not only do permit holders succeed in stopping active shooters at a higher rate, but law enforcement officers face significantly greater risks when intervening. Our research found police were nearly six times more likely to be killed and 17 percent more likely to be wounded than armed civilians.”
Lott said that those numbers paint a fuller picture than the FBI’s crime statistics, which fail to include many of the defensive gun uses his organization has cataloged. But the problem with the FBI’s crime statistics isn’t just the errors in their reported data ‚Äî they also fail to address useful questions, like how concealed handgun permit holders compare to law enforcement. Kash Patel and Dan Bongino face a major challenge in reforming how the data is collected and reported at the FBI, Lott said.
From 2014 to 2023, CPRC researchers found that armed civilians stopped 180 of 515 active shooting cases. Of the attacks in places where people were allowed to carry, CPRC found that permit holders stopped 158 of the 307 instances. The FBI defines an “active shooting” as an event where an individual actively attempts to kill people in a public place ‚Äî excluding shootings tied to robberies or gang violence. An “active shooting” could be as simple as a single shot fired at a lone human target, even if the shooter misses, to a mass shooting.
Lott said, “The Crime Prevention Research Center’s findings tell a very different story than the narrative you’ll see in the corporate press.”
Of the 180 total instances where an armed civilian stopped an active shooting, did permit holders end up accidentally shooting bystanders? In just one case, Lott said, or 0.56 percent. . . .
