The House Committee on Oversight and Accountability is launching an investigationinto the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) for allegedly failing to report complete and accurate national crime data, which the federal law enforcement agency was caught “stealth-editing” a year later.
This week, the GOP-led House Oversight Committee’s chairman, Rep. James Comer (R-KY), sent a scathing letter to FBI Director Christopher Wray demanding transparency about the “quietly revised” crime statistics.
In 2023, the FBI initially reported about a 2 percent decrease in violent crime nationwide in its annual 2022 report but later edited it to reflect that this figure actually increased by 4.5 percent — more than a 6 percent change. This correction — discovered in the fall of 2024 — was not accordingly publicized, nor the did bureau make any public announcement explaining the discrepancy.
Comer’s memo cites crime watchdog Dr. John Lott’s investigative research, which found that the FBI failed to include in its initial count an additional 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 aggravated assaults. . . .
On October 16 RealClearInvestigations published John Lott’s revelation about the stealth revision, and this opened the eyes of an already-skeptical public as to the veracity and credibility of the FBI. He wrote:
When the FBI originally released the “final” crime data for 2022 in September 2023, it reported that the nation’s violent crime rate fell by 2.1%. This quickly became, and remains, a Democratic Party talking point to counter Donald Trump’s claims of soaring crime.
But the FBI has quietly revised those numbers, releasing new data that shows violent crime increased in 2022 by 4.5%. The new data includes thousands more murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults.
The upward (or downward, if one considers the numbers from the victims’ point of view) revisions “are extensive,” said Lott:
The actual changes in crimes are extensive. The updated data for 2022 reports that there were 80,029 more violent crimes than in 2021. There were an additional 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 aggravated assaults.
Then Lott asked, rhetorically, “Should the FBI’s 2023 numbers be believed?”
Of course not. . . .
According to economist John R. Lott Jr.
Of those cleared by ICE, 13,099 have convictions for homicide, and another 1,845 were facing criminal charges. Some 9,461 have convictions for sex offenses (not including assault or commercialized sex), and 2,659 face pending charges. The convictions include other crimes such as assault (62,231), robbery (10,031), sexual assault (15,811), weapons offenses (13,423), and dangerous drugs (56,533).
About 7.4 million noncitizens are in the ‘national docket data,’ so 662,776 is 9% of the total, and if one extrapolates the numbers to the homicide rate in this country, it strongly indicates that the government is letting migrants into this country who commit murder at a rate 50% higher than the rest of the U.S. population.
The numbers are even worse than they seem. They include only those who were either caught at the border or turned themselves in, not the tens of thousands of “Gotaways,” those who weren’t caught.
“ICE processed these criminals as they entered the country, but it didn’t identify them as criminals, so it released them into the country,” noted Lott. “Now, they are just walking around freely in the United States, and no one knows where they are.”
A 2022 study from the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) found there were 22 times as many attacks against pro-life organizations as pro-abortion organizations. Between May (when the Dobbsdecision was leaked) and September of 2022, there were 135 attacks against pro-life groups; comparatively, there were just six attacks against abortion organizations.
“The bottom line is that after the Dobbs decision was leaked, there was over 22 times more violence directed against pro-life groups than pro-choice organizations,” the CPRC said. “However, if the media is less likely to cover violence [against] pro-life organizations, the 22 times estimate will underestimate the relative violence against these groups.” . . . .
Violent crime is a major concern among many American voters, and when John Lott at the Crime Prevention Research Center reported how the FBI had under-reported crime in a devastating article published by RealClear Investigations, the media gave it short attention. Whether this revelation will have much influence on the Nov. 5 election remains to be seen. . . .
As John R. Lott of the Crime Prevention Research Center documents, even this reported increase in crime masks the true extent of it. That’s because an increasing number of crimes are going unreported and unprosecuted.
In some jurisdictions, entire categories of crime (such as thefts below a certain dollar threshold) are effectively being ignored by law enforcement.
National Crime Victimization Survey numbers show that total violent crime has risen by 55% since Joe Biden assumed office.
Robberies, as reported by victims themselves, are up a grim 63%. . . .
Stefan Gleason, “Americans Are Living in Fear of ‘Crimeflation’,” Goldseek, October 29 2024.
Democrats and their liberal media boosters subsequently mocked Trump for his remarks about the country’s crime rate. However, Dr. John Lott, America’s eminent pro-gun academic, penned a report at RealClear Investigations entitled “Stealth Edit: FBI Quietly Revises Violent Crime Stats” that set the record straight on the FBI’s crime report. Initially, the FBI reported that violent crime decreased by 2.1%. Lott’s report discovered that crime had actually increased by 4.5%, thereby vindicating Trump’s remarks in the September debate. . . .
Staff, “The Biden Regime is Under-Reporting Violent Crime,” Texas Gun Rights, October 28th, 2024.
His assessment of the problem seems off—if it’s a plague, it’s peculiar that this one seems so locally confined in specific areas. As economist and author John Lott of the Crime Prevention Research Center demonstrates, “Murder isn’t a nationwide problem. It’s a problem in a small set of urban areas, and even in those counties, murders are concentrated in small areas inside them… 2% of counties had 56% of the murders in 2020, 52% of US counties had zero murders.”
The FBI has quietly changed 20 years of homicide data from 2004 to 2023. Professor John Lott has published an article showing the FBI’s revised homicide data for 2022 and 2023. The previous numbers fed Biden/Harris administration talking points.
A close look at the data shows the FBI “adjusted” the homicide data from the last two decades, not just the last two years. The largest adjustment outside of 2021 and 2022 happened to the data from 2005. As of 2006, the total number of homicides reported by the FBI for 2005 was 16,740 for 2005 and 17,034 for 2006. In 2019, the numbers were reported as 16,740 and 17,309. As of 2024, the numbers were adjusted to 17,750 (added 1,010) for 2005 and 17,241 (dropped 68) for 2006.
What happened with the numbers in 2005? How do they hold steady for 13 years, then suddenly expand by over a thousand murders for the year? It is an increase of 6%.
It is reasonable for homicide numbers to be adjusted upwards for a few years after the initial reporting. Some reports may come in late. Some investigations may show a crime was a homicide instead of a suicide. People who were severely wounded may die. It is harder to see how the number of homicides decreases. Perhaps dates were misreported. The increase of over a thousand homicides in one year should be explained. . . .
Dean Weingarten, “FBI Altered Homicide Data for the Last Two Decades,” Ammoland, November 1, 2024.
